bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com
Never one to quit before, former U.S. Rick Santorum bowed out of the presidential race Tuesday, highlighting his family, his legions of supporters, his issues, his improbable run to serious contention and the urgency of defeating President Barack Obama.
He just never bothered to explain why he was quitting - and in his home state, no less.
Analysts across Pennsylvania who have watched him a long time said the main reasons are obvious.
Santorum not only could not win the nomination, he seriously risked losing Pennsylvania to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, maybe any hopes of returning to run for president again and his rejuvenated stature within the national Republican Party, the analysts said.
"This is the ultimate realist's decision. I think it's a smart call. Going forward he had a lot to lose. By pulling up stakes at this point, he preserves all that he has won during this campaign," said Christopher P. Borick, director of Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
The Easter weekend hospitalization of Santorum's daughter, Bella, who suffers from a rare and almost always fatal rare genetic disorder, might have influenced the decision to quit now, the analysts said, but political realities undoubtedly drove him to quit amidst the primary election campaign in the state where he lost a Senate race so badly six years ago.
"He quit because it was inevitable Romney will be the nominee and he wants to preserve his standing to move beyond 2012. He wants to have some influence and some relevance in policy and in politics," said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., director of the Franklin & Marshall College poll.
A month ago, a Franklin & Marshall poll of registered Republican voters had Santorum leading Romney, now the presumptive nominee, by 29 percentage points. By the week before last, another F&M poll showed Santorum's lead narrowed to 2 points.
Santorum labeled the poll the work of a "Democratic hack (Dr. Madonna)," but within days four other polls had Santorum's edge down to single digits - 4 to 6 points - and a Democratic-leaning pollster had Romney ahead.
Undoubtedly, a defeat for Santorum in his home state would have crippled his campaign, effectively ending the race - despite his consistent bravado or brave front - but it also would have badly damaged his political future.
"It would be humiliating for Santorum, especially with a fairly fresh memory of his last Senate campaign, to lose the state to Romney. Even if he was able to eke out a victory in Pennsylvania, that would still be humiliating," said Michael Federici, Ph.D., chairman of the political science department at Mercyhurst University in Erie.